האם סטיבן מירן יפעיל לחץ להורדות ריבית מהירות יותר, ואיך זה ישפיע על הכלכלה העולמית?
מערכת ישראל עסקים
נשיא ארה”ב דונלד טראמפ הודיע על מינויו של סטיבן מירן, יו”ר מועצת היועצים הכלכליים, כחבר במועצת הנגידים של הפדרל ריזרב – בכפוף לאישור הסנאט. מירן צפוי לכהן עד 31 בינואר, אך כבר כעת ברור שהשפעתו עשויה להיות מיידית, במיוחד על רקע היחסים המתוחים בין טראמפ לבין יו”ר הפד, ג’רום פאוול.
בעבר קרא מירן להידוק הפיקוח על הפד, ואף הביע עמדות התומכות בשקיפות רבה יותר ובמדיניות ריבית גמישה שתתחשב גם בשיקולים פוליטיים. מינויו עשוי להעניק לטראמפ השפעה ישירה יותר על המדיניות המוניטרית, ובעיקר על האפשרות ללחוץ להורדות ריבית מהירות – צעד שיכול לחזק את הצמיחה בטווח הקצר אך גם להגביר סיכוני אינפלציה.
עבור שוקי ההון, מדובר באיתות כפול: מצד אחד, המשקיעים עשויים לברך על מדיניות מוניטרית מרחיבה שתוזיל את עלויות המימון ותמריץ השקעות. מצד שני, קיים חשש להתערבות פוליטית מוגזמת בעצמאות הפד – מהלך שעלול לערער את אמון השווקים במוסדות הכלכליים של ארה”ב.
בזירה הבינלאומית, הורדות ריבית בארה”ב יכולות להשפיע ישירות על שער הדולר, על מחירי הסחורות, ועל מדיניות הבנקים המרכזיים במדינות אחרות – כולל ישראל, שנוטה להתאים את עצמה למגמות הגלובליות.
האם המינוי הזה הוא תחילתו של שינוי עמוק ביחסי הממשל והפד?
כיצד תושפע הכלכלה העולמית מהפחתת ריבית מואצת בארה”ב?
והאם לדעתכם נכון שמדיניות הריבית תושפע משיקולים פוליטיים?
שתפו את הפוסט עם קולגות מתחום הכלכלה והפיננסים,
ותייגו מי שיכול לתת זווית מקצועית על ההשלכות המוניטריות של המינוי.
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